Key Takeaways
- Consumer confidence dropped in September: The Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, down from 88.6 in August.
- People are worried about prices and interest rates: 68.4% of consumers expect interest rates to go up, and they expect prices to rise 6.1% over the next year.
- Spending on services is being cut back: Consumers said they expect to spend less on services over the next six months.
- Contractors can still win the job: We'll cover 4 things you can do this fall, including 3 follow-up texts you can copy.
If it feels like customers are taking longer to say yes lately, you may not be imagining it.
On September 29, the Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index for September 2026. The index fell to 81.9, which is a drop of 6.7 points in one month. People told the survey they're worried about prices, and they expect to pull back on spending.
So what does that mean if you run an HVAC, roofing, or plumbing company? In this post, we'll go through what the report says, what it doesn't say, and four things you can do this fall to keep winning jobs.
What does the September report say?
The Consumer Confidence Index comes from a monthly survey by the Conference Board. It measures how people feel about the economy right now, and how they expect it to change over the next six months.
Here are the main numbers from the September report:
| Measure | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 81.9 | Down 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August |
| Present Situation Index | 109.3 | Down 7.9 points |
| Expectations Index | 63.6 | Down 5.9 points, the third monthly decline in a row |
| Consumers who expect higher interest rates | 68.4% | Up 5.2 points |
| Average expected inflation over the next 12 months | 6.1% | Up 0.3 points |
| Consumers who say jobs are "hard to get" | 21.9% | Up from 20.3% |
Source [1]
Dana M. Peterson, the Conference Board's chief economist, said the index "deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening."
Three more details in the report matter for service businesses:
- Consumers expect to spend less on services over the next six months. The report says this spending "pared back again" in September.
- Plans to buy homes and cars both declined slightly.
- In the write-in comments, mentions of high prices "rose to new heights."
What doesn't the report say?
It's easy to read too much into a number like this. So here's what the report doesn't tell us.
It doesn't measure home services specifically. The survey asks about services in general. The top five services people plan to spend on are restaurants and takeout, streaming and mobile service, beauty and personal care, utilities, and healthcare.
It also doesn't mean people will stop fixing things. If a furnace dies in November, it's going to get fixed. Repairs like that aren't optional.
What the report does tell us is that people are nervous about money. And nervous customers tend to act differently when they hire a contractor.
How do nervous customers act?
The report doesn't cover this part, so this is our read. When money feels tight, customers usually do four things:
- They get more quotes. They call three companies when they used to call one.
- They ask about repairing instead of replacing.
- They ask about payment plans and financing.
- They take longer to decide. "Let me think about it" can mean a week or more.
Bigger jobs are affected the most. If you do HVAC replacements, new roofs, or remodels, you should expect the sales process to take longer this fall.
The work is still there. You'll need to do a few things well to win it.
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4 things contractors can do this fall
1. Answer every call
When a customer is calling three companies, the one that answers gets the first conversation. If your phone goes to voicemail, a lot of people won't leave a message. They'll call the next company on their list.
So make answering the phone someone's first job. If you don't have anyone in the office, you have a few options:
- An answering service
- An AI receptionist for small business, which answers the call, asks what the caller needs, and sends you the details
- A missed call text back, which automatically texts anyone you couldn't pick up for
Pro tip: Test it yourself. Call your own number at 2pm on a weekday and again at 7pm, and listen to what a customer hears.
2. Follow up on every estimate
A lot of contractors send the estimate and then wait. They don't want to seem pushy. But when a customer is comparing three quotes, the contractor who checks in is the one they remember.
You don't need a sales script. Three short texts over ten days is enough. Here are examples you can copy:
Day 2: "Hi Dana, it's Mike from Mike's Heating. Do you have any questions about the furnace quote? I'm happy to walk through it."
Day 5: "Hi Dana, it's Mike again. If the full replacement is more than you want to spend right now, I can price out the repair so you have both numbers."
Day 10: "Hi Dana, this is my last check-in. The quote is good through the end of the month. If you went with someone else, no hard feelings. Just let me know so I can close it out."
Keep each text short, send it during the day, and stop as soon as the customer replies.
3. Give two options on every estimate
If a customer only sees one big number, they'll go looking for a smaller one from another company. You can give them the smaller number yourself.
Put two options on the estimate. For example, show the price to repair and the price to replace. That way the customer is choosing between your two options, not between you and another company.
It also helps to list what's included, like permits, haul-away, cleanup, and warranty. If another quote comes in cheaper, the customer can see what it leaves out.
And if you offer financing, show the monthly payment next to the total.
4. Keep your reviews fresh
Careful customers tend to read more reviews before they call, and they tend to look at the recent ones first.
If your newest review is from last spring, ask your last few customers for one this week. The best time to ask is right after the job, when the customer is happy with the work.
What does this mean for your business?
Consumer confidence fell in September, and customers are being careful with their money. That doesn't mean the work is going away. It means the contractors who answer quickly and follow up will have an edge.
If you'd like help with that, Pantora is local business marketing software that builds your website, answers your calls, follows up on your leads, and manages your Google reviews. You approve the work from one inbox.